If the probability of event 1 is 80 percent and of event 2 is 70 percent and they are independent events, how likely is it that both events will occur?
A. 6 percent B. 15 percent C. 24 percent D. 56 percent
Correct Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation:
The likelihood is determined by multiplying the probability of event 1 by the probability of event 2.
Each one of the following statements about risk avoidance is true EXCEPT that it______________
A. Focuses on changing the project management plan to eliminate entirely the threat B. Isolates the project's objectives from the risk's impact C. Accepts the consequences of the risk event should it occur D. Changes the project objective that is in jeopardy
Correct Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation:
Accepting the consequences of the risk event is categorized as risk acceptance. With this risk response approach, the project team takes no action to reduce the probability of the risk’s occurring.
You are developing radio frequency (RF) technology that will improve overnight package delivery. You ask each stakeholder to estimate the most optimistic package delivery time using the RF technology, the most pessimistic time, and the most likely time. This
shows that for your next step you plan to______________
A. Use a beta or triangular probability distribution B. Conduct a sensitivity analysis C. Structure a decision analysis as a decision tree D. Determine the strategy for risk response
Correct Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation:
Interviews often are used to help quantify the probability and consequences of risks on project objectives. The type of information collected during the interview depends on the type of probability distribution that is used. A beta or triangular distribution is used
widely when information is gathered on the optimistic (low), pessimistic (high), and most likely scenarios.
A project health check identified a risk that your project would not be completed on time. As a result, you are quantifying the project's risk exposure and determining what cost and schedule contingency reserves might be needed. You performed a schedule risk
analysis using Monte Carlo analysis. The basis for your schedule risk analysis is the______________
A. WBS B. Gantt chart C. Schedule network diagram and duration estimates D. Probability/impact risk rating matrix
Correct Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation:
When determining the likelihood of meeting the project’s schedule end date through Monte Carlo, the schedule network diagram and duration estimate are used as inputs to the simulation program. Cost risk, on the other hand, uses cost estimates from the WBS.
In the below path convergence example, if the odds of completing activities 1, 2, and 3 on time are 50 percent, 50 percent, and 50 percent, what are the chances of starting activity 4 on day 6?
A. 10 percent B. 13 percent C. 40 percent D. 50 percent
Correct Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation:
Probability (starting activity 4 on day 6)=(0.5)3
=0.125 or 13%
Most statistical simulations of budgets, schedules, and resource allocations use which one of the following approaches?
A. PERT B. Decision-tree analysis C. Present value analysis D. Monte Carlo analysis
Correct Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation:
Simulations are typically performed using Monte Carlo in which a project model is computed many times with the input values chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distribution of these variables. Monte Carlo analysis supports various statistical
distributions (normal, triangular, beta, uniform, etc.) used in estimating budgets, schedules, and resource allocations.
A. An unplanned response to a negative risk event B. A plan of action to follow when something unexpected occurs C. A specific response to certain types of risk as described in the risk management plan D. A proactive, planned method of responding to risks
Correct Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation:
Used in control risks, a workaround is a response to a threat that has occurred for which a prior response had not been planned or was not effective.
The Delphi technique is a particularly useful method for identifying risks to______________
A. Present a sequence of decision choices graphically to decision makers B. Define the probability of occurrence of specific variables C. Reduce bias in the analysis and keep any one person from having undue influence on the outcome D. Help take into account the attitude of the decision maker toward risk
Correct Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation:
The Delphi technique provides a means for arriving at a consensus using a panel of experts to determine a solution to a specific problem. Project risk experts are identified but participate anonymously. Each pane list answers a questionnaire. Then the responses,
along with opinions and justifications, are evaluated, and statistical feedback is given to each panel member. The process continues until group responses converge toward a solution.
You are working on identifying possible risks to your project to develop a nutritional supplement. You want to develop a comprehensive list of risks that can be addressed later through qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. An information gathering technique
used to identify risks is______________
A. Documentation reviews B. Probability and impact analysis C. Checklist analysis D. Brainstorming
Correct Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation:
Brainstorming is a frequently used information-gathering technique for identifying risk, because it enables the project team to develop a list of potential risks relatively quickly. Project team members, or invited experts, participate in the session. Risks are easily
categorized for follow-on analysis.
As project manager, you have assembled the team to prepare a comprehensive list of project risks. Which one of the following documents would be the most helpful in this process?
A. OBS B. WBS C. RBS D. CBS
Correct Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation:
The risk breakdown structure (RBS) helps to provide framework for ensuring a comprehensive process of systematically identified risks. It is a hierarchically organized depiction of the identified risks by risk categories.
